By Bitwave 
Ethereum’s Trajectory: A Closer Look
Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, has expressed concerns about Ethereum’s performance relative to Bitcoin over the next year. He cautions that while Bitcoin is on a strong bull run, Ethereum may not deliver the same returns due to its current state.
Bitcoin’s Strong Performance
Since January 1, 2024, Bitcoin has surged by 121.4%, setting new highs rapidly. This performance is attributed to factors such as the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States earlier that year, which drove significant inflows.
Ethereum’s Limited Returns
In comparison, Ethereum has returned only 46.3% over the same period on CoinMarketCap data. This disparity highlights Bitcoin’s superior performance during a bull market.
Potential Catalysts and Market Shifts
Thielen notes that key catalysts for Ethereum in 2024, such as network upgrades like Duncan and Pectra, have yet to materialize effectively. The Duncan upgrade, aimed at reducing gas fees and increasing transaction capacity, was delayed by six months. This delay caused Ethereum to miss the peak of the "memecoin" rally and shifted market dynamics toward more cost-effective alternatives like Solana (SOL).
Expert Opinions on 2025
Thielen expresses skepticism about the impact of upcoming upgrades, stating that only two have had a significant positive effect so far. He attributes Ethereum’s lack of progress in 2024 to major catalysts falling flat.
Current State of Ethereum: A Closer Look
Ethereum’s active validator numbers remain a critical indicator for its future performance. Thielen observes that the growth rate of validators has turned negative, raising concerns about increased risks as more validators exit the network.
Market Dynamics and ETF Interest
While Bitcoin ETFs have garnered over $35.3 billion in inflows since their launch in 2023, Ethereum ETF interest remains subdued. This divergence underscores the broader market’s preference for Bitcoin as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty.
Investor Sentiment: A Closer Look
Some experts hold optimistic views on Ethereum’s future, particularly relative to Bitcoin. For instance, magazine writer MNK-BT suggests that $ETH / $BTC could break through 0.04 in January 2025, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment.
Conclusion:
Thielen’s analysis underscores the challenges Ethereum faces in competing with Bitcoin during a strong bull market. While some experts remain optimistic, the broader market sentiment suggests that investors may prioritize Bitcoin as a safer investment option over the next year.